The New Mexico Life - Life and Real Estate in the Land of Enchantment

There’s a New Kid in Town

July 30, 2026

There haven’t been many times over the past three years when I felt a higher degree of certainty about what rates will do or may do. And not for all the lovely reasons you might hope for. First, let’s talk about the Federal Reserve itself, the political attacks on it, and what that may mean for the voting disposition of the current members. And then we can look at actual rate numbers and possible effects on housing.

The President’s Repeated Attacks on The Federal Reserve Failed

Among the institutions in the president’s crosshairs for political attacks has been the Federal Reserve; he was threatened by the Fed’s institutional independence and sought to erode it, unsuccessfully, via constant attacks on former chair Jerome Powell and upon another member whom he just plain didn’t like. That Fed governor was Lisa Cook; the president sought her removal from the board on mortgage fraud accusations, with the U.S. Supreme Court ruling on the matter in late June. In short, the Court held that the president could not remove Cook (nor the chair, for that matter) and that Federal Reserve Board was a sort of carve-out from the president’s growing executive powers. What does this mean for the current Fed board’s “rate posture”? More than meets the eye.

The Fed’s Tradition of Independence Continues

Since its inception in the early 20^th century, the Federal Reserve has been almost completely insulated from executive and congressional attack. Trump’s onslaught, blunted by the Court’s 5/4 ruling, looks to have backfired, for once. We’ll see over the next few months. How? New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh doesn’t agree philosophically with telegraphing Fed sentiment through the media before meetings; he’s tight-lipped. And by playing his cards close to the vest, Warsh claws back a significant amount of independence. Under his leadership, the other governors have been pretty mum too. By keeping rate moves away from the media circus and political scrutiny as much as circumstances allow, the Fed’s independent prerogative is reasserted. In fact, some pundits hold that the other board members are much more free to take a more hawkish stance on inflation and that their voting pattern may change a bit with the increased cover. I couldn’t agree more.

New Federal Reserve Board Chair Kevin Warsh

Now: The Iran War, More Tarriff Baloney, Above-Target Inflation, and Rate Hikes

Among the lessons that are coming to the president’s awareness is that wars are easier to start than stop. In this case, not only does the conflict bring the usual economic uncertainty that accompanies war, but the reality that Iran can effectively choke off Hormuz tanker traffic at will means it has far greater influence on global crude prices than it did before the conflict. Law of unintended consequences, anyone? Indeed, it is in Iran’s (perceived) interest to keep crude prices high to demonstrate that leverage. It’s also in Iran’s interest to prolong the conflict. The war strongly pressures rates higher. No es bueno.

In other upward-pressure news, the Supreme Court knocked down the president’s first round of tariffs, but in his typical style, he has come back with another series, which will be more likely to elude legal challenges. Tariffs are extraordinarily inflationary (difficult for the Fed’s usual tools to address), and the longer they remain in place, the higher the pressure.

All this contributes to above-target inflation prints (the Fed’s mandate is twofold: control inflation at a target of 2.00% and maintain stable employment). With June’s consumer price index (CPI) number at 3.50%, down from May’s downright intolerable 4.20%, and all of the above, a short-term rate cut simply will not happen. Rate hikes are almost certainly on the horizon, with Fed Funds futures (basically a betting market on what the Fed will do) showing roughly a 55% to 80% chance for a 0.25% September rate increase. Will it be a one-time deal? Not likely, in my view. We will likely see hikes totaling 0.50% to 0.75% if things remain as they are, with the Fed Funds effective rate (a weighted average of all Fed Funds trades) back up into the 4.25% range in a year or so, where it was for much of 2025.

Fed funds Effective Rate, July 2016 to July 2026

Whither Mortgage Rates? Higher, Frankly

What effect will this bump to Fed Funds have on Mortgage rates? Not much good, if you like your rates low. The overnight Fed Funds rate has only a weak correlation with the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate, off of which mortgage rates are set, but it does set the tone and direction. About three years ago, I wrote that former treasury secretary Larry Summers’ view was that the 10-Year yield might hover around the 4.75% for much of the next decade. Summers has been wrong about a few predictions of late, but on this, I fear he will ultimately prove right. Yesterday’s close on the 10-year was 4.68%. And again, with all the systemic pressures in place now, the future for long-term yields is higher, not lower. So if we see short-term Fed hikes of 0.50% to 0.75%, we might see the 10-year move a similar amount. That would push average 30-year mortgage rates higher from their current 6.66% level. An equally likely scenario is that because the long end of the curve tends to act as more a thermometer than does the short end (and if the 30-year bond continues its recent rise) the 10-year might be dragged even higher and take mortgage rates with it. This is the outcome that kinda jibes with my hunch.

10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield, July 2016 to July 2026

The Result? Continued Constrained Supply. What about Prices?

Over the past three years, rising mortgage rates have constrained housing supply, as holders of low-rate mortgage paper choose to remain in their current homes, rather than put them on the market and sign a note for a new loan at 6.50%. In some respects, this constrained supply is good because it’s provided support for prices, but cracks are starting to show in that dynamic, with supply slowly creeping upward and market tolerance for steady price growth amid dwindling supply wearing thin (housing-market demand is surprisingly price-elastic). Anyway, in Santa Fe’s case, the drivers of housing demand are of a different ilk than they are in the rest of the country, with steady, reliable, and greater relative demand from outside the state insulating this market from forces that affect mainstream markets. While the cost of funds may prove higher to some over the next year, the fundamentals of Santa Fe real estate remain stable. Oh, and if you’re in the market for a mortgage, it may not be a bad idea to look now rather than delay.

Five Favorite Santa Fe Restaurants

May 23, 2026

If you’re a Santa Fean, you tend to frequent the dining places that are oriented a bit more toward locals. It just kinda happens that way. So these are not the trendy spots or the touristy standby stuff, but rather the reliable, everyday places whose owners have figured out a formula for doing almost everything right, almost every time, for the people who will come back and look at them funny if they don’t. Without further ado:

CounterCulture

The name is actually somewhat descriptive of the place. CounterCulture is a very social, close-quarters kind of place where you almost invariably run into one or two people you know. It’s located in an spare metal building at the corner of Cerillos and Baca street. It and the food (and the quality of it) has not changed in 25 years. That’s a good thing. To order: I often go for the Cowboy Bowl, which is an always-yummy blend of black beans, both green and red chile, a flour tortilla the size of Montana, bacon, sour cream, and an egg (though I hold back one or two of those things). The French toast at CounterCulture is not to be trifled with either. The spring rolls are some of the best I’ve had, should you be there for lunch. Order the cinnamon rolls — made only on the weekends — at your own risk. They are notoriously good. 930 Baca Street No. 1. Website here.

La Choza

This brings up the broad and deep subject of New Mexican food, and I’ll avoid delving too deep into that. Suffice it to say that La Choza’s red chile is (in my opinion and by consensus) reliably among the best in town. The dishes are not (despite the now-heavy proportion of tourist traffic here) oriented toward Iowa farmers and wandering Oklahomans, but are aimed square at the local who won’t notice the chile unless it eats the finish off the table. La Choza is the real deal. However, it’s hard to get into, and Heather and I have therefore turned that into an art. For dinner, in general, you gotta go early. So skip lunch and get there at 4:30 when they open. If it makes you feel like your hair’s turning blue, deal with it. If you want to be sneaky, order something to pick up and park in one of the curb-service (really!) spots against the fence. To get in at lunch, go at 11:30 during shoulder season. During the high seasons, it ain’t happening. Things to get: the blue corn burritos, smothered in (extra) red, with garlic bread and (for me) vegetarian posóle on the side. The apple pie is insane. Respectable margaritas. La Choza is the sister restaurant of the Shed, which is now overrun. 905 Alarid Street. Website here.

Dolina

I was skeptical of Dolina when it first opened, if only because it took the place in a funky little building of another old favorite, Clafoutis, which moved across town and is now (woe unto me) in a strip center. Dolina’s menu is genuinely eclectic, with some eastern European dishes (which are quite good) and outstanding coffee and espresso drinks. But the real attraction at Dolina is the local vibe. As at Pasqual’s, there’s a community table, which is a great place to sit if you’re up for a lively conversation. Dolina’s pastries and bakery things are some of the best in town. To order? The green chile & cheese hash browns are de rigeur. The French toast is likely the best in town. Breakfast grains are great. And just try to escape the front door without getting something from the pastry case. Parking at Dolina is kindof an aspirational thing, so bring your patience and walk a little. 402 North Guadalupe. Website here.

Escondido

Our default “nice” restaurant is Escondido, the wonderful brainchild of Fenando Ruiz, who apparently whopped somebody or other’s can on some Cooking Network thing. Obviously, I pay close attention to that stuff. What does Escondido do right? Pretty much everything. The menu is inventive. The dishes are not New Mexican but have a Mexican tilt, with a mere wink to NM. The service is reliably prompt and courteous. If you’re up for a nice, original meal and a good bottle along with it, Escondido is your place. It’s off the beaten path, on Agua Fria, away from the hordes. To order: I love the vegetarian version of the Chile En Nogada (below). 1101 Paseo Corazon, Suite 100. Website here.

Cafecito

A relatively new arrival in town, situated in the Baca Railyard area, just around the block (for you old timers) from where Captain Marble used to be. Cafecito has a South American/Argentinian bent, but its home in a modern, crisp, clean glass, timber, corrugated metal and concrete building is something of a juxtaposition. Easy (for the most part) to get in to, Cafecito has become a reliably hip local gathering place. The empanadas are the real deal, and though they don’t have 20 different varieties, you’d have to try to fail if you order these. For breakfast or lunch, the panqueque con dulce de leche will likely result in your reaching a level of contentment you didn’t think you could hit. 922 Shoofly Street. Website here.

Another installment of the restaurant chronicles coming soon.

It’s a Buyer’s Market in Santa Fe

May 23, 2026

One thing I’m always careful to do when looking at the market is to check my own perceptions with those of other brokers and more importantly, to check them against market data. For about six weeks now, it’s felt as if there’d been a slowdown, roughly concurrent with the start of the Iran war. For some time, though, the data didn’t scream out at me and it appeared that we were still in our normal cycle.

But now the data’s clear, and it looks like the normal cycle is a little kinked.

Usually, there’s a steady increase in both listings and sales as we move into the summer, It all peaks in the fall. But this year, we have seen pretty significant drop-off in pending sales in April, down to the level we normally see in midwinter. We don’t have May data yet, but it has felt softer still. See the chart below for the pending sales data. That dip you see on the far right of the chart is indeed something of an aberration. That’s ‘supposed’ to happen in November.

Pending Home Sales: Santa Fe Association of Realtors MLS, Three Years Ended April 30, 2026

Of course, one has to compare similar time periods and keep all else the same to arrive at a valid conclusion, so I looked at active listings for the three years ended April 30, 2026. Here, listing numbers continue to climb in their normal fashion.

So we have listings increasing at the usual rate and pending sales stalled like a ’69 Camaro in rush hour. This spells opportunity for buyers and indeed, throughout May, I have felt a softness in pricing that we don’t usually feel except in midwinter.

Home Listings: Santa Fe Association of Realtors MLS, Three Years Ended April 30, 2026

The market seems to be inviting buyers to try to take advantage of the disparity between inventory levels and sales to come to an attractive deal. At least that’s how I read it.

To view a few of my recent sales, click here. To search the Santa Fe inventory, click here.

The Most Important Thing To Do When Listing Your Santa Fe Home

March 26, 2026

It’s Probably Not What You Think

It has nothing to do with price, or positioning, or cosmetics, or curb appeal, or presentation. It has to do with integrity and self preservation.

It’s fair to say that most home sellers don’t realize that the process of selling can be fraught with liability. My view is that most sellers also don’t have a firm handle on just how common suits surrounding failure to disclose property defects are. Thankfully, most people do know that the seller’s disclosure is important and that “you should disclose stuff.”

But generally, sellers don’t understand exactly how liability unfolds in a transaction.

The Seller’s Disclosure is Your Friend

The things sellers must do to avoid disclosure liability can make them a little uncomfortable, ironically. Let’s say you’ve lived in your home for nine years and have been super diligent about maintenance and repairs. But recently, you learned of a little roof problem that you haven’t yet taken care of. And because it seemed pretty minor, you thought it would be a little silly to disclose it, since after all, nothing’s actually gone wrong yet.

And then let’s say that in the course of the sales process, the buyer hired a general inspector. And he took a look at the roof. But perhaps the buyer’s broker didn’t recommend having a roofing professional look at the roof, so the little defect went undiscovered during the transaction.

Whew! Right?

Wrong. A serious defect that’s undisclosed and undiscovered in inspections is potentially dangerous.

A Defect That’s Uncovered In Inspection Is, In Effect, Disclosed

Let’s also say that your closing date was in early July and that on July 21, one of Santa Fe’s super-concentrated, freakish thunderstorms parked itself over your old house, complete with hail and an insane rainfall rate. And that defect developed into a gap large enough for all that water to penetrate, flooding the home, sparking mold growth and causing structural damage. This type of scenario, unfortunately, is relatively common. In this case, the buyer has fairly simple recourse. All he or she has to do is prove that you were aware of the defect, but that in all the conversations regarding the property and on the seller’s disclosure form, you and your broker kept quiet, because you didn’t think it would be a big deal.

This is a nightmare liability scenario for a seller. Santa Fe real estate lawyers will tell you that disclosure cases are really not worth pursuing unless the damage reaches close to six figures, and in this hypothetical case, it very well could.

Bummer. So you see where I’m going.

It’s Far Better to Over-Disclose

The wisest course is to disclose everything you can think of to disclose. Then, have documentation ready to show what your course of action on a particular item has been, and be absolutely thorough and up front about it. Most buyers would much rather see that there’s been a articular problem but that it was professionally handled and repaired, with full documentation, than hear “No, nothing really.” And besides, you’ll be surprised how easy it actually is to cough it all up. Liability can’t creep in if you are fully and utterly and annoyingly honest. So the next time you hear a listing broker say “you don’t really have to put anything there,” on a particular field on the seller’s disclosure form, run like hell! In fact, that broker may not know it, but if there’s awareness of the defect on his part, he may also be liable too.

New Mexico Forms Do Us No favors

Unfortunately, NMAR disclosure forms are notoriously poorly designed, actually encouraging sellers not to disclose anything. Even the brand-spanking-new new form, released March 25, still has these sporty little check boxes that, in effect, encourage sellers to claim “I don’t know of anything.” It’s terrible design and contributes to the problem:

But don’t be tempted!

If you want to mitigate your legal risk in a transaction, you will do the opposite and disclose everything you know of.

If you were to list with me, in fact, we would have not one, not two, but multiple conversations around the general issue of disclosure for the following reasons: 1) it’s just better to follow such a practice from an ethical standpoint, and 2) a large portion of my job is protecting you from liability during the course of a transaction. As you contemplate a sale and seek to avoid liability, brokers who know how to guide the those difficult conversations and are rigorous about property disclosure can keep you out of the courtroom and protect you from loss.

View my recent sales here.

View a few hand-selected listings here.

Snowshoeing in Santa Fe!

December 3, 2025

Not too long ago, I wrote about the ease of skiing in New Mexico, which by now has gotten to feel like something of a throwback. There aren’t that many places where you can throw your stuff in the car and sit on a lift chair in 45 minutes. But downhill’s only part of the draw of wintersports in Santa Fe.

If you’ve never been snowshoeing, you owe it to yourself to give it a try while your’re here. I love it for some of the same reasons I love cycling. When you’re on a bike versus in the car, you absorb so much more of the environment, of the air, the shadows, the feel of the road, the cool, the heat, the feel of a fast descent — it’s sensory magic. And snowshoeing, like riding, lets you feel that you are in a natural environment and not sliding by it on slippery boards.

One doesn’t have to learn a bunch of new skills or pay $140 for a lift ticket. It’ll just cost you the gas. Head down to REI in the Railyard when you’re here and get some advice on the best snowshoes for your weight and height. You can even rent them. Grab a buddy, and next time there’s a snowfall of about 8” to 24” up on the mountain, GO! One does need a few winter safety skills in knowing how to keep warm, how to avoid overexertion, and how to make sure your base layer stays dry, but aside from that – if you can hike, you can snowshoe.

And the beauty will floor you. If you’ve got about a foot of fresh powder on the trail, it can be jawdroppingly gorgeous.

I used to go with my yellow lab Maisy, who’s in a few of these photos, and she too has a blast.

For your first jaunt, I would go up to the Aspen Vista trail, the trailhead for which starts at about 10,000 feet — about 15 miles from the intersection or Ski Valley Road and Bishop’s Lodge Road. Aspen Vista is a forest service double-track maintenance trail for the antennae at the top of Tesuque peak, so you can’t lose it. It’s quite wide. And none of the grades are steeper than about 6%. In other words, it’s an ideal snowshoe trail. If you think it may not be that much of a thrill, you’re thinkin’ wrong.

And if you need a snowshoe buddy, give me a call. As with any winter sport, especially when you’re in a remote area – always go with a friend.

Santa Fe Markets in A 20-Year Context

November 27, 2025

Almost every one of my clients knows I’m a data nerd. It’s not just because I am a nerd (as Heather reminds me), but because I believe it’s important to view the Santa Fe real estate markets in a context that’s free of emotion if your aim is to know what’s happening on behalf of your clients. Many brokers tend to conflate their own experience with what the broad market’s doing, and that’s often an emotional thing and not valuable. Data can keep you out of trouble!

I originally wrote this in the Fall of 2025 and am somewhat intentionally not updating the data for this version, if only to restate the point that the residential markets in Santa Fe, right now, are reassuringly normal.

A Welcome Step Down from Pandemic Highs

When I looked at sales for 2025 through late November, it looked like the numbers would settle close to last year’s. And indeed they did. A tad lower. Respectable. But take a look at 2021, with its twin stimuli of buyers fleeing crowded population centers and artificially low mortgage rates fueling a boom. The nadir came in 2009 as the credit-driven financial crisis took hold and lending virtually came to a halt. So when I get questions from potential buyers in Santa Fe, I always place the numbers in the context of the Santa Fe market having normalized after the adrenaline-fueled pandemic years of 2020 and 2021. This cooling is healthy, in my view. Market fundamentals are quite steady, with several demand drivers. So far, in 2026, we had our usual slow winter start. But in April, listing and purchase activity has picked up.

It always does as we head into summer.

The Drivers of Santa Fe Demand Are Still in Place

It’s interesting to try to understand what the 2025 numbers mean in hindsight. For one, there’s still pent-up demand from the mortgage-rate lock-in effect (I wrote on that here) and that’ll continue until the sub-4% mortgage inventory depletes. That’s a positive influence, though its effect in the $1.2 million and up price bracket is muted because about half of those buyers pay cash here. More importantly: Santa Fe’s position as one of the leading resort markets means that we enjoy strong demand when other markets don’t. When this was originally written in the Fall, I thought we might see (should rates stay where they are at about 6.25%) a similar year in terms of volume, rather than some sudden change in either direction. Indeed that has been what has taken place. Rates jumped up to 6.50% and are now back around 6.30%.

Whither Prices?

Regarding prices: There is an annual (and temporary) winter mushiness in Santa Fe, from which we are now emerging. Several factors may support prices climbing through 2026, though maybe at less frenetic pace than over the past three years of shortage. Our market’s free of potential distortions, both those related to credit, to mortgage rates (now that they’ve have been allowed to find a natural level), to potential overbuilding, etc. In fact, the effect of threatened tariffs is still constraining new-home building, and that’s a potentially positive influencing factor on prices. Do note, though, that this market is extremely intolerant of pricing mistakes on the high side. A seller who prices too high will be punished. Two years ago you could slip by and maybe get your price; now, not so.

Is the rest of 2026 going to be another Goldilocks market? Perhaps. It’s fairly relaxed at the moment for most buyers and sellers and “normal” is probably an apt word.

The Dangers of Overpricing in a Soft Market

November 15, 2025

You May Wind Up With Less

It seems a little counterintuitive, and many sellers are reluctant to believe it. Overpricing your home can mean you’ll wind up with less money in the end. It almost certainly will mean your transaction may be stretched from weeks to months or even years. There are a few things at work when this happens. Most often, a seller has an emotional attachment to his or her home (as all of us do) and believes it to be worth more money because, well, they want it to be. It may be that they’ve invested hard-earned funds in updates and want to see all that bear fruit. But most often it’s based on emotion and perhaps a misperception of how markets work.

Negative Perception Can Kill a Sale

In a neutral or soft market, overpricing almost always means your home will just sit. An analogy: when you’re trying to sell a car, and you price it too high, you won’t get calls. Just silence. It’s the same with real estate. You won’t get showings. The first thing that’ll happen is that brokers note to themselves: “that place is overpriced.” And after a while they’ll look at the number of days it’s been on market. Then thought creeps in: “what’s wrong with that place, anyway?” So: the first result is inactivity. This alone can be fatal. Then doubt creeps in about the quality of the property. And if it sits for too long, those doubts collectively morph into something resembling a stigma. That can be the kiss of death. The transaction price is then forced lower, sometimes far lower, because the market perception of the property is now negative.

A Benefit of Pricing Well

Pricing appropriately, using research and hard data to support the listing number, has a few benefits you might not think of. The first is that it increases the number of eyeballs that view your property online — often doubling or tripling the sum. This is crucial. If you’re priced below a certain benchmark (For example: $745,000, so you can appear in searches up to $750,000), the property may appear in many more online searches. More searches mean more showings. More showings means more potential for offers. And if you’re appropriately priced or even strategically underpriced, you may find yourself with multiple offers that bid the purchase price well above the list price. I recently had a home close $125,000 (or 9.1%) above its $1,375,000 list price. This was a much better result than pricing it at $1,600,000 could have yielded, and the clients were thrilled. A skilled broker can handle this situation deftly. And in the end, it’s a much less painful experience to negotiate upwards than it is to be forced by market reality to go in the other direction.

A Silly Way to Raise Revenue

November 6, 2025

It’s hard to overstate how inflammatory the issue of the “mansion tax” has been in Santa Fe. The city of Santa Fe has attempted, in an effort to raise revenue to dedicate to affordable housing, to impose a transfer tax of 3% of any sale amount over $1,000,000, with the tax nominally to be paid by the buyer. So for example a purchaser of a $1,300,000 home would owe $9,000 ($300,000 x .03) tax at closing.

There has indeed been great consternation and gnashing of teeth.

My first impression of learning of this effort was that it was a stupid way to raise revenue. It is. Wouldn’t it be more effective to impose a broad gross receipts or sales tax on all residents? Of course it would be. But voters would never approve that. So backers took aim at what they believed to be a narrow and vulnerable demographic group. It was a clever strategy. It worked. And voters approved it.

But there’s a problem.

Transfer taxes on real property in New Mexico are illegal. State statute on that issue is clear. A lower court ruled earlier this year in a summary judgement that the tax was unlawful (a summary judgement is a judge’s ruling before an issue goes to a jury that there is no question regarding the law as it applies to a particular matter).

And indeed, in this matter, there is not.

But there was an issue in making the ruling stick. The litigant in the case was the Santa Fe Association of Realtors (SFAR), and no harm was done to SFAR in this instance. As the chief litigant, SFAR lacked standing, and therefore the lower court’s ruling was recently reversed by an appeals panel.

The appeals court did not, however, take issue with the lower court’s finding that the transfer tax is unlawful. It is. The court, in effect, communicated that if the litigants desire is for the lower-court ruling to stick, plaintiffs with standing must be a party to the suit. For those opposed to the tax, this is actually a positive development. Why? It won’t be hard to find plaintiffs with standing. Anyone who pays the tax in this interim period (buyer or seller) will have been harmed by the unlawful tax and will therefore have standing.

And a few of them will choose to litigate, I imagine.

Whether a temporary injunction is put in place or not, it seems likely that plaintiffs with standing will appeal the recent ruling and therefore make the lower-court’s finding stick. How long that will take is unknown, but at that point, it’ll be back to the drawing board and in my estimation, the city will revise its strategy to raise revenue for and dedicate revenue to a worthy cause.

(There are multiple perspectives on this issue and mine may not prove correct, so if you’d like to discuss, reply.)